Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
